Hyperbolic Discounting Behaviour: Why ‘I’ll Start Tomorrow’ Wins 

Most of us have the right intention – exercise more, lose a few kilos – yet each morning brings a new excuse and a promise to start ‘tomorrow’. Hyperbolic discounting behaviour explains why: people discount the value of a benefit that will arrive in the future, preferring an immediate reward instead. A fitter body in three or four months rarely outweighs the comfort of not exercising today. Here is the brain science, the evidence on commitment contracts and a Singapore case. 

Key takeaways 

• Hyperbolic discounting makes future rewards feel much smaller than immediate ones, especially over short delays. 

• Brain imaging shows two systems competing: one drawn to immediate rewards, one holding longer-term goals. 

• Commitment contracts and small, immediate rewards turn distant goals into today’s stakes. 

• Singapore’s National Steps Challenge applied these principles to more than 400,000 adults. 

What Is Hyperbolic Discounting? 

Hyperbolic discounting is the tendency to discount the value of a future benefit, preferring an immediate reward – and to discount far more steeply over short delays than over long ones. The term was formalised in a landmark economics study showing that the rate at which people discount future rewards is much steeper over short delays than standard economic theory would predict³. 

That is why ‘I’ll start tomorrow’ feels so reasonable. It is a close cousin of loss aversion: both describe how predictably our choices depart from what is ‘rational’. 

Why Does the Brain Keep Choosing ‘Tomorrow’? 

Because two different brain systems are competing – and the one that wants the reward now often wins. Researchers scanned participants while they chose between smaller-sooner and larger-later monetary rewards. Limbic and paralimbic regions, including the medial prefrontal cortex and nucleus accumbens, were preferentially activated whenever an immediate reward was on the table, while lateral prefrontal and parietal regions linked to deliberate, goal-directed thinking were engaged regardless of delay⁴. 

In practice, the impulse to skip the gym is not a failure of character. It reflects a weak neural representation of the delayed reward, combined with poor activation of the frontal processes that inhibit immediate gratification – so people with a more impulsive personality may find hyperbolic discounting harder to resist. 

Do Commitment Contracts Beat Hyperbolic Discounting? 

Yes – if willpower alone won’t overcome hyperbolic discounting, structure can. 

• Context: smokers in a randomised trial. 

• Intervention: a commitment savings account – participants deposited their own money and forfeited it to charity if they failed a nicotine test after six months. 

• Result: those offered the contract were around three percentage points more likely to quit, an effect that held up in surprise testing a year later². 

• Limitation: a different behaviour from exercise, and most participants still didn’t quit. 

• Lesson for practice: attaching a real cost to skipping the goal converts a distant, abstract benefit into an immediate stake – the logic behind gym apps such as Earndit and Gym-Pact. 

Does It Work at Scale? Singapore’s National Steps Challenge 

Yes. Singapore’s Health Promotion Board has applied the same principles at national scale. 

• Context: a population-based cohort study of 411,528 adults in Singapore’s National Steps Challenge. 

• Intervention: a free step-tracking app with cash-convertible HealthPoints for hitting daily step targets. 

• Result: participation was associated with a mean increase of around 1,400 steps a day, with larger gains among women and the oldest age group – typically the hardest to reach with traditional exercise messaging¹. 

• Limitation: an observational study, so it shows association rather than proven cause. 

• Lesson for practice: small, immediate, gamified rewards counteract the pull of hyperbolic discounting, at national scale. 

Designing a behaviour-change or wellness programme? DeltaMV’s Healthcare Behavioural Strategy team can help you build immediate rewards into it. 

How to Beat Hyperbolic Discounting: 4 Steps 

1. Quantify the goal in real terms – put a dollar value on what the goal is worth to you. 

2. Commit and penalise – sign a contract with yourself and pay a penalty each time you skip. 

3. Have someone keep you in check – social accountability makes skipping costly today. 

4. Make the reward immediate – points, cash or visible progress, as in loss-framed patient adherence programmes and Uber-style nudges. 

What Are the Limitations? 

• Effects vary by person: more impulsive people may need stronger commitment devices. 

• Rewards must be well designed: incentives that feel distant or complicated recreate the very problem they aim to solve. 

Frequently Asked Questions 

What is hyperbolic discounting behaviour? 

The tendency to undervalue future rewards relative to immediate ones, especially over short delays – which is why ‘tomorrow’ always looks like the better day to start. 

How can you overcome hyperbolic discounting? 

Raise the immediate value of the goal: commitment contracts, accountability partners and small, instant rewards all help. See also our introduction to nudges and choice architecture. 

Next Steps: Design Programmes That Work With the Brain 

Intentions are cheap and immediate rewards are powerful. Campaigns that only appeal to a future, healthier self are competing against a brain wired to discount that future heavily. The more effective path is to build immediate, tangible rewards – financial, social or simply visible progress – into the product or programme itself. 

Want to design behaviour-change programmes that stick? Talk to DeltaMV’s Healthcare Behavioural Strategy team. 

References

1. Ang, G., Edney, S. M., Tan, C. S., Lim, N., Tan, J., Müller-Riemenschneider, F., & Chen, C. (2023). Physical activity trends among adults in a national mobile health program: A population-based cohort study of 411,528 adults. American Journal of Epidemiology, 192(3), 397–407. https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwac193 

2. Giné, X., Karlan, D., & Zinman, J. (2010). Put your money where your butt is: A commitment contract for smoking cessation. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2(4), 213–235. https://doi.org/10.1257/app.2.4.213 

3. Laibson, D. (1997). Golden eggs and hyperbolic discounting. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112(2), 443–477. https://doi.org/10.1162/003355397555253 

4. McClure, S. M., Laibson, D. I., Loewenstein, G., & Cohen, J. D. (2004). Separate neural systems value immediate and delayed monetary rewards. Science, 306(5695), 503–507. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1100907